Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
